Blue chip stocks - not a poker game

Investing in conservative blue chip stocks may not have the allure of a hot high-tech investment, but it can be highly rewarding nonetheless, as good quality stocks have outperformed other investment classes over the long term.

Historically, investing in stocks has generated a return, over time, of between 11 and 15 percent annually depending how aggressive you are. Stocks outperform other investments since they incur more risk. Stock investors are at the bottom of the corporate "food chain." First, companies have to pay their employees and suppliers. Then they pay their bondholders. After this come the preferred shareholders. Companies have an obligation to pay all these stakeholders first, and if there is money leftover it is paid to the stockholders through dividends or retained earnings. Sometimes there is a lot of money left over for stockholders, and in other cases there isn't. Thus, investing in stocks is risky because investors never know exactly what they are going to receive for their investment.

What are the attractions of blue chip stocks? 1. Great long-term rates of return.

2. Unlike mutual funds, another relatively safe, long term investment category, there are no ongoing fees.

3. You become a owner of a company.

So much for the benefits - what about the risks? 1. Some investors can't tolerate both the risk associated with investing in the stock market and the risk associated with investing in one company. Not all blue chips are created equal.

2. If you don't have the time and skill to identify a good quality company at a fair price don't invest directly. Rather, you should consider a good mutual fund.

Selecting a blue chip company is only part of the battle - determining the appropriate price is the other. Theoretically, the value of a stock is the present value of all future cash flows discounted at the appropriate discount rate. However, like most theoretical answers, this doesn't fully explain reality. In reality supply and demand for a stock sets the stock's daily price, and demand for a stock will increase or decrease depending of the outlook for a company. Thus, stock prices are driven by investor expectations for a company, the more favorable the expectations the better the stock price. In short, the stock market is a voting machine and much of the time it is voting based on investors' fear or greed, not on their rational assessments of value. Stock prices can swing widely in the short-term but they eventually converge to their intrinsic value over the long-term.

Investors should look at good companies with great expectations that are not yet imbedded in the price of a stock.

The Art Of Trading - How To Trade During A Consolidation or Congestion Phase

When stock prices start to move within a certain range, falling to established lows and then rebounding up to established highs and fall back again, the stocks are said to be in a consolidation or congested phase.

Most of the time, typical consolidation patterns can be seen, with the most common one being the rectangle pattern or sometimes called a price "corridor" or channel.


When prices start to drop, traders get nervous and weak holders will sell their stocks so that they will fall to a support level which other traders will consider a good price to buy. From that level, stock prices will then rebound, often with volume as support comes into the stock.

As the price of the stock improves and increases, it will reach a peak where traders who have purchased the stock at lower prices will sell. At the same time, weak holders who have purchased the stock at higher prices may wish to bail out as their losses are narrowed with the improved prices. At that point in time, resistance is encountered and the stock price then tops over to form a peak.

When you connect the support prices and the peak prices where the price tops over, you will find the pattern of a channel or a rectangle.

During consolidation phases, prices trade within a range formed by the bottom of the channel or rectangle and the top of the rectangle or channel.

Technically, the use of oscillators will be suitable for trading within congestion phases. The key is to identify the bottom of the channel and to buy closer to the bottom of the channel and to sell as prices reaches the top of the channel or rectangle.

A common mistake newer traders commit is to continue to use their trend following trading system during a congested phase and encounter a lot of whipsaws as prices oscillate between a small range.

When you transit from a bullish market and moves into a bearish market, be contented with smaller gains which come from trading the congested and consolidation phases. Fall back upon oscillators to track your stock prices and trade them in relation to their location within the price rectangle pattern that you can easily identify in your stock chart,